Although quantum computing is good, it will take 10 years for mature commercial use?

Quantum computing is destined not to be a personal consumer product

30 seconds quick reading

1  Quantum computers will not enter every family like a mobile phone. A quantum computing annealing machine from Canadian quantum computing company D-Wave sells for between 10 million and 15 million US dollars.

2 The  quantum computer needs to be in a low temperature environment when calculating, how much K level. The 1K temperature is equivalent to minus 272 degrees Celsius.

3  At present, more than 90% of application scenarios still need to rely on traditional computer chips, while quantum chips can only solve 1% to 2% of the application scenarios.

In the 5G era, everything is connected and data is growing explosively. Jin Xianmin, founder of Turing Quantum, said that in the future data explosion, the amount of new data each year will be the sum of past data.

In Huawei quantum computing software and algorithms Wengwen Kang chief scientist opinion, when the transistor element size of 10 times the size of an atom, electrons becomes unstable, we can not form a signal 0 and 1 of the macroscopic world. But it is also the occurrence of the quantum tunneling effect that makes particles appear in a quantum superposition state and makes quantum computing possible.

Although quantum computing is good, it will take 10 years for mature commercial use?

Weng Wenkang Source: Network

Jin Xianmin told the IT Times reporter that when Moore’s Law ends and traditional computing power can no longer be supported by chip size, quantum computing and photon computing will become important means to break through computing power in the post-Moore era.

01At  least 10 years from maturity

Since quantum has a superposition state, it can perform operations in the state of 0 and 1, so the computing power of N quanta is N times that of the traditional computer 2.

Weng Wenkang pointed out in a speech at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference on Quantum Computing and Photonic Chip Forum that quantum computing will bring exponential growth in computing space. A superconducting processor the size of a nail can carry 50+ qubits (100 nanometers). , Surpass the memory capacity of all classic computers.

However, unlike the output of a traditional computer is an accurate result, the output of a quantum computer is a probability. And artificial intelligence also produces probabilistic results after data classification. Therefore, Wu Junjie of the Research Institute of National University of Defense Technology believes that quantum computing is more suitable for the application of artificial intelligence.

At the end of June this year, the Pan Jianwei team of the University of Science and Technology of China published a paper saying that the 56-qubit superconducting quantum computing prototype “Zuchongzhi” can compress the sample of tasks that the supercomputer takes 8 years to complete to a minimum of 1.2 hours. At the end of last year, Pan Jianwei The team announced the successful construction of the “Nine Chapters” of 76 photon quantum computing prototypes, realizing the “quantum superiority” of optical quantum computing for the first time in the world. But at present, quantum computing is still in the state of laboratory research and development, and can only complete specific tasks.

So, how long do we have to wait for the commercialization of quantum computing? Jin Xianmin believes that there are three prerequisites for the realization of a general-purpose quantum computer-the ability to manipulate millions of qubits, an extremely low temperature environment, and a high degree of integration.

Analyzing Wengwen Kang, “dedicated” quantum computer simulation of quantum systems, quantum chemistry, combinatorial optimization, and machine learning expected mature field of 3 to 5 years, while in the decomposition of large numbers, a database search, the quantum power , quantum AI It is expected that the maturity period of “universal” quantum computers in other fields may take 10 years or more.

02  Quantum computers cannot be used by civilians

“Quantum computers will not be used just like everyone has one, in every home.” Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai micro system researcher at Institute for Statistics and Information Technology Li-respect in particular, quantum computing will be mainly used in the national government level.

Behind this is the high cost.

“IT Times” reporter noted that a quantum computing annealing machine of Canadian quantum computing company D-Wave sells for between 10 million and 15 million US dollars.

Although quantum computing is good, it will take 10 years for mature commercial use?

Source: Network

You Lixing said that because the quantum superposition state is very fragile, it is easy to produce “quantum noise” at a high temperature, which will affect the accuracy of calculation. Therefore, whether it is a quantum computer in the form of photons, superconductors, or ions, it needs to be in a low temperature environment during calculations. “In Hao K-Class”. The 1K temperature is equivalent to minus 272 degrees Celsius.

In order to meet the Hao K environment, the quantum computer needs to be equipped with a “refrigerator”, that is, a dilution refrigerator. You Lixing revealed that the price of a “refrigerator” is at least two to three million yuan, and the nine chapters of quantum computing prototypes are equipped with seven.

At the same time, to transmit the calculation results to the room temperature environment, a special data cable is required. The unit price is about 10,000 yuan, and a computer with 100 data cables means an expenditure of 1 million yuan.

The greater cost is energy consumption. You Lixing said that the calculation of energy consumption at room temperature in a high-K environment will greatly increase by 1 million to 100 million times, up to 10 megawatts. It should be understood that the power generation of general power stations is only at the level of 100 megawatts.

On the other hand, from an extremely low temperature environment to room temperature, the data line will have “heat leakage”. Therefore, in the view of You Lixing, the energy consumption of the line heat leakage is even higher than the calculated energy consumption.

A research report from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology pointed out that the industry believes that for a long period of time, it is a more practical and feasible way to develop quantum computing services through cloud platforms, share scarce resources, and explore applications suitable for the quantum computing industry. This may explain why companies such as Google and Huawei Cloud have begun to deploy quantum cloud computing. And on July 7th, the first domestic public cloud Ucode and Turing Quantum signed a strategic cooperation agreement.

03Can the  photonic chip overtake in a curve?

Every three and a half months, the computing power needs to be doubled. This is the demand for computing power in the era of big data, far exceeding the supply of Moore’s Law. Jin Xianmin told reporters that with the arrival of the physical limit, the non-von Neumann architecture will become the next breakthrough in computing power, “human beings have entered the era where architecture is king.”

Vice Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics Zhang Long considered characteristic photon has ultra-high information capacity, low power consumption and transmission delay, low channel interference, and having a natural parallelism, in-phase with the power consumption at Optical devices are hundreds of times faster than electrical devices. “Photonic chips will be the basic core technology for future technological development and one of the most promising technologies for breaking through Moore’s Law.”

Zhang Long said that at present, no country in the world has formed an absolute advantage in the field of photonic chips. “China needs to take the lead in the field of photonic chips, which is not yet fully mature.” At present, the photonic chip industry still has four pain points: there are few processing platforms, testing equipment still relies on imports, high-end photonic devices are still scarce, and the lack of major landing scenarios.

Zhang Long believes that more than 90% of the application scenarios still need to rely on traditional computer chips, while quantum chips can only solve 1% to 2% of the problems in the application scenarios. Today, the advantage of Chinese chips lies in IC design, which is in artificial intelligence. The result of accelerated development under the landing of application scenarios.

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