Alibaba Dharma Academy’s Top Ten Tech Trends in 2022

On December 28th, Alibaba Dharma Academy released the top ten technology trends of 2022. It put forward the top ten technology trends of 2022, covering the fields of artificial intelligence, chips, computing, and communications. They are:

Trend one, AI for Science;

Trend two, co-evolution of large and small models;

Trend three, silicon optical chips;

Trend four, green energy AI;

Trend 5, flexible sensing robots;

Trend six, high-precision medical navigation;

Trend seven, global privacy computing;

Trend 8: Star-to-ground calculations;

Trend nine, cloud and network integration;

Trend ten, XR Internet.

The following is an excerpt from the introduction of each part:

Trend 1: AI for Science

The Dharma Institute proposed that AI will become a new production tool for scientists after computers. One is to bring about a significant increase in efficiency, and the other is to help scientists possibly break through long-standing research bottlenecks.

Previously, the era when scientists in some fields needed to “sit on the bench for 10 years to produce scientific results” will pass, and AI will accompany the whole process of scientific research from hypothesis, experiment to summary, so that scientists can be able to do so throughout their lives. Maintain “high yield.”

The in-depth integration of AI and scientific research still needs to solve three challenges: human-computer interaction (the collaboration mechanism and division of labor between AI and scientists need to be clearer), the interpretability of AI (AI needs to be easier to understand), and interdisciplinary talents (professional fields) The barriers between scientists and AI researchers to promote each other need to be overcome).

Trend 2: Co-evolution of large and small models

In the past few years, large-scale pre-training models such as Google’s BERT, OpenAI’s GPT-3, Zhiyuan’s “Enlightenment”, Dharma Academy’s M6 and AliceMind have developed rapidly like an arms race, resulting in a rapid improvement in the performance of large models. Lay a good foundation for downstream AI model training. However, the large model training consumes too much resources and the performance increase caused by the sharp increase in the amount of parameters is disproportionate to the consumption increase, which challenges the efficiency of the large model.

Dharma Institute believes that the knowledge and cognitive reasoning ability accumulated by the large model is output to the small model, and the small model is superimposed on the perception, cognition, decision-making, and execution capabilities of the vertical scene on this basis, and then the execution results are fed back to the large model. The knowledge and abilities of the large model can continue to evolve, thereby forming a set of organic looping intelligent systems-the more participants, the more beneficiaries, and the faster the model evolves.

Trend Three: Silicon Optical Chips

Dharma Institute believes that the higher computing density and lower energy consumption of silicon optical chips are solutions for extreme computing power scenarios, and it proposes that optoelectronic integration is the development trend of future chips.

Dharma Institute predicts that in the next three years, silicon optical chips will support high-speed information transmission in large data centers; in the next 5-10 years, optical computing based on silicon optical chips will gradually replace part of the computing scenarios of electronic chips.

Trend 4: Green Energy AI

Large-scale development and utilization of green energy has become the main direction of energy development in the world today. However, under the trend of a high proportion of green energy being connected to the grid, the traditional power system cannot cope with the uncertainty of the power generation of green energy in strong winds, heavy rains, thunder and lightning, etc., lacks high stability and multi-energy coordination, and responds to complex faults in a timely manner. ability.

Dharma Institute therefore believes that in response to the various challenges faced by large-scale green energy grid integration in stable operation and planning, a new generation of information technology based on artificial intelligence will provide technical guarantee and strong support for the efficient and stable operation of the overall energy system. .

Dharma Institute proposed that AI technology will play an irreplaceable role in the accurate prediction of power generation, optimal power dispatch, power station performance evaluation, fault monitoring and risk management, and will bring about three major breakthroughs: accurate power prediction, intelligence Dispatching control, automated fault response.

Trend 5: Flexible perception robots

Sex robots with soft, flexible, programmable, scalable and other characteristics, combined with artificial intelligence technology to make them have perceptual capabilities, are expected to improve the versatility and autonomy of the robot, reduce the dependence on pre-programming, and greatly expand the use of robots. .

Therefore, in Dharma Academy’s predictions, the emergence of flexible sensing robots will allow industrial robots to move from large-scale standardized production lines to small-scale non-standard production lines, which will enable service robots to interact with people more closely.

Flexible sensing robots also have three key challenges to overcome: First, the level of intelligence is limited by the effectiveness of end-to-side computing power and small sample learning, and depends on the breakthrough of cloud collaboration; second, the accuracy is limited by the rigidity of the material and depends on the variable material. The third is that it is subject to high costs and depends on process optimization and further generalization to make the price competitive.

Trend 6: High-precision medical navigation

At present, AI technology has been proven to be effectively combined with research on new technologies such as genetic testing, targeted therapy, immunotherapy, etc., to change the diagnosis model that relies solely on the experience of doctors. Dharma Institute believes that in the next three years, emerging technologies represented by AI will gradually penetrate into the entire process of clinical diagnosis and treatment of multiple diseases.

Take the entire process of tumor navigation as an example. In the early screening and diagnosis stage, using AI image analysis, doctors can find the traces of cancer cells, changing the traditional diagnostic model of only observing cancer cells with the naked eye.

Dharma Institute predicts that in the next three years, human-centered AI medical care will become the main direction, fully penetrated into all links of disease prevention and diagnosis and treatment, and become a high-precision navigation for disease prevention and diagnosis and treatment. With the further development of causal reasoning, interpretability is expected to achieve breakthroughs. AI will provide strong technical support for disease prevention, early diagnosis and treatment.

Trend 7: Global Privacy Computing

Privacy computing technology is to complete computing tasks on the basis of data privacy protection. If we call the Internet the infrastructure of the new era, privacy computing is an infrastructure-critical security technology that can solve most of the problems of data protection and safe utilization.

Privacy computing is not a single technology, but a unified name. According to the definition given by Dharma Academy, privacy computing “combines cryptography, artificial intelligence, chip design and other disciplines, with multi-party secure computing, differential privacy, and trusted computing as representative technologies, and it is realized without leaking data privacy. Computational analysis provides a feasible model for cross-organizational data sharing.”

Dharma Academy predicts that within three years, global privacy computing technology will have new breakthroughs in performance and interpretability, and data trust companies will begin to provide data sharing services based on privacy computing; in the next 5-10 years, global privacy computing It will change the existing data acquisition methods and stimulate new data-based productivity.

Trend 8: Star-to-ground computing

In densely populated areas, the Internet and digital services are ubiquitous, but in no-man’s areas such as deep space, oceans, and deserts, how to achieve global connectivity and digital applications? Obviously, the ground network and calculation alone cannot effectively meet the demand.

Dharma Institute proposed that satellite-to-earth computing, which integrates satellite systems, air networks, ground communications, and cloud computing, is becoming an emerging computing architecture.

Dharma Institute believes that satellite-to-earth computing realizes holographic ubiquitous intelligent high-speed broadband communication and global computing services through the ubiquitous network connection of air, sky, earth and sea, which will promote the interconnection of all things and effectively solve the problem of remote areas, navigation and aviation Communication needs. The low-latency and wide-coverage network will also promote the further integration of cloud and network ends, bringing the possibility of new applications for various extreme scenarios.

As represented by SpaceX, as of December 2021, the Starlink constellation has launched a total of 1,890 satellites.According to the foreign speed test website Ookla, in the second quarter of 2021, Starlink’s test download speed averaged 108Mbps, and the average network delay was 37ms. At present, Starlink constellation has obtained formal licenses in 12 countries, and has begun operations in 16 countries, and currently has more than 100,000 users worldwide.

Satellite-to-earth computing, which combines cloud computing, communication technology and satellite Internet, will become a new generation of infrastructure in the future.

Trend 9: Cloud and Internet Convergence

Cloud computing has developed rapidly in the past 10 years. With technological innovation, what new species will be born on the cloud in the next stage? Dharma Academy believes that it is “a new computing system formed by the integration of cloud and Internet.”

Under the new computing architecture, the cloud, network, and terminal still have their own division of labor, but all have new changes: the cloud responsible for computing and data processing will have better computing efficiency, systematic data processing, and high precision, high efficiency and high coverage. Artificial intelligence; as a connection in the system, the low latency and wide coverage of the network will allow the cloud and network to form a more organic whole; and as an interactive interface in the system, the form of the terminal will be more diversified, covering interactions in various scenarios need.

Dharma Institute proposed that the integration and collaboration of cloud and network will promote the birth of more new applications more efficiently: in the cloud, applications will not be limited by the resources of the past devices, and release more possibilities, such as high-precision industrial simulation; On the other hand, distributed computing power will promote more low-latency edge computing applications, such as real-time industrial quality inspection; on the end side, cloud and network end collaboration and interaction will give birth to a virtual world like a Metaverse.

Dharma Academy predicts that there will be a large number of application scenarios running in a cloud-network-converged system in the next two years. With the birth of more new devices based on cloud, the user experience will be more extreme and richer.

Trend 10: XR Internet

Dharma Academy believes that with the industrialization of virtual reality technologies represented by VR and AR, the next generation of XR Internet will have a huge impact on the digital age.

Dharma Institute proposed that the construction of XR Internet requires four major elements: hardware (such as XR glasses, etc.), content (such as entertainment, shopping, social networking, etc.), artificial intelligence (such as spatial perception, digital twins), infrastructure (such as 5G, cloud Calculations, etc.).

In the view of Dharma Academy, XR Internet changes the way people interact with technology. First, it simulates the real-world time and space and solves real-world remote mobility problems, such as distance education, telemedicine, and telecommuting. The second is to create the real world. The non-existent time and space solve the imperfect problems of the real world, such as games and social interactions.

At the same time, XR Internet will also reshape the existing industrial structure and give birth to a batch of new industries ranging from components, equipment, operating systems to applications.

 Dharma Academy predicts that a new generation of glasses will be produced in the next three years, integrating AR and VR technologies, using cloud-based collaborative computing, optics, perspective and other technologies to make the shape and weight close to ordinary glasses; XR glasses, as an Internet portal, will also Get widespread popularity.

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