45 Advice for Crypto Investors: How to Identify Projects for Prudent Investment?


1. Don’t be superstitious about BTC.d. Less than 20% of the people who enter the circle after 2020 have BTC, and they will not change their hedging into pie. In addition, the LTV of pie in DeFi and CeFi is high, and the implied leverage is even greater. , if you hold Shitcoin, it will be smashed when you unlock it, but it will be a later thing. You can’t leverage Shitcoin by itself, and Cex, CeFi or DeFi can’t be very good, so there is no negative cycle.

2. The main thesis, which cannot be used for investment, is that many people have already hedged, and secondly, the OTC transaction of locked-up tokens is also very active, which has been digested in many cases. If you really want to sell short, you also limit your positions to one or two. Intraday profit and loss should also be closed.

3. Look at the three roles of VC when picking projects

  • VCs who have heard the name a little can save the effort of checking whether the project party will be Hard Rug;
  • If the amount of financing is sufficient relative to the size and type of the team, there is no need to worry that they will not have enough money to pay salaries before dawn;
  • Projects with more than three junk VCs are not looked at directly.

In other cases, whether it is a big VC or a small VC or no VC is not the factor of the project

4. For Audit, Trails of Bits, OpenZepplin, ConsenSys are better, but they are only for reference. There are CertiK, Slowmist, Peckshield and these are also good, but the role of Audit is more to prove that the project party is willing to spend a “wasted money” into the project and is willing to spend time queuing for the Audit, instead of earning hundreds of thousands and cutting it within a few days, It is just a side dish to make users feel more at ease with Code. In addition, when you see junk, the Audit company can help you filter junk items.

5. The exchange should try to use the mainstream (Binance, FTX, Coinbase), others can open an account to trade some small coins, and be cautious about enlarging the money.

6. Get the right information in the right place, in order of importance

  • Twitter: find hotspots/new projects/watch news
  • DefiLlama/Debank: new project
  • Discord: The project server’s piecemeal update in Community Call + Token-gated small circle chat Alpha
  • Telegram: Looking for hot spots / watching news / watching market sentiment (Telegram’s new project is slower than Twitter) + small circle chat Alpha
  • Data website (Nansen, Dune): Nansen catches mice, Dune sees data
  • English Paid Media (Delphi, Messari): Learn what Narrative says and how to Shill bag to others
  • English/Chinese free media (Coindesk, Rhythm): see if there are any missing old news and watch ads

Others: Line, Youtube, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram. Look at people.

7. It is nonsense to calculate PE or DCF for a project. Does it count Token emission? Is there a separate Fee for LP and Fee for Governance Token? Have you considered the Agency Problem between the project method and the token holder? The lowest PE is the high point of Sushi and Mkr. The most unreasonable PE is Solana, which is 3u and close to no Fee. Do you still believe in PE?

8. Multiplied by the question about governance tokens, it is enough to basically divide into two categories: those with money and those without money. Those who have money, more or less, indicate that he is not afraid of the securities law, and he is willing to go out; those who have no money, indicate that he is very afraid of the securities law, don’t believe their false promises, and those who are afraid of the securities law seem to be married, The scumbag who is afraid of his wife tells a third party that he will divorce Zhengyin sooner or later. Sooner or later, this may be a lifetime.

9. Each country’s projects have their own tonality. The main issue is not about national character, but about laws and regulations. It seems that American projects are not so daring to pay dividends, or some national police are not so active in arresting people. Rug-pull, let’s not say so much, I understand everything.

10. Fair Launch / Stealth Launch projects are very good, but don’t open Fomo, because the initial supply is very low, and the people who locked the $CRV four-year position of Curve in the early stage made bad money, but not including the first day of mining coins.

11. The VC bus (hundreds of VCs have invested a lot of money) can be fried for a short time, and the digging is better, but it cannot be locked, and it cannot be locked longer than the VC unlocking time.

12. The contract in the currency circle, whether it is SAFT or SAFE, is for reference only, and the rogue will not talk to you about the spirit of the contract.

CeFi articles:

1. CeFi lending is sugar-coated poison. Even if it’s not Alex who has a personality problem, your yield is derived from his loan to the higher-risk gambling boy Counterparty. For example, he gives you 8%, and he lends it to outsiders. It will also be 10%+, how come there are so many traders with annualized 10%, the Max drawdown is not high, the strategy is still Scalable and can reach hundreds of millions of traders, not counting the profits they need, it is very likely that those people are carrying Do you feel at ease to mine 100% of the mine with 10% of the capital cost?

2. Dual currency wealth management cannot be said to be a scam, but it is a combination of options, and the fees are just a handful. In many cases, it is 10%-20% higher than if you do the option combination yourself, depending on whether you want it or not.

3. Packaging the grid as an interest-bearing product is a lie. Have you ever thought about what “interest” is? The so-called mechanization of selling high and buying low, excluding the influence of emotions, is to encourage you to passively trade frequently to pay fees to exchanges and promoters. They will not mention long-tail risk, nor will they tell you the procedures of these grid companies. How is the fee higher than using the exchange directly? Binance BTC is free for BTC, and FTX pending orders are also free. The grid is not called quantitative, and it is not suitable for most people. Your trading is easily affected by emotions, so don’t trade, not do something grid.

4. Don’t trust cloud mining/miner contracts unless you can verify their computing power.

DeFi articles:

1. Mining seeks simplicity. The more complex and innovative projects are, the easier they are to be wrecked. You are not an investment project, you are mining to earn annual income.

2. Stablecoin mining, if you are afraid of the decoupling of stablecoins (such as UST), you can choose to put USDC into the loan agreement and borrow UST to mine. In this way, you have more than a dozen parties, and the decoupling has nothing to do with you.

3. Liquidity mining is essentially that the project pays rent to you to borrow liquidity. It cannot be said that it must be Ponzi, but if the borrowed liquidity is unused, it is Ponzi. Therefore, when evaluating projects, look at the utilization of funds Rates and daily activities are sometimes more important than watching TVL.

4. Among the three treasures of DeFi (lending, exchanges, and synthetic assets), lending is the most tricky, and the project party is the most likely to cheat/out out.

5. Be sure not to dig bridges, it is more risky than borrowing.

6. All existing Fixed-income DeFi sectors are dead.

7. All existing CeDeFi/RWA sectors are dead.

8. The on-chain contract is a very popular track, but which one is made, the market value should be in the top 20, so it is very popular.

9. Before Niuhui, there may be Ponzi with simple and violent gameplay, but Ponzi with too many layers should be gone.

NFT articles:

1. NFTs are not selling Jpegs. There are very few successful ones just because the pictures are beautiful. I think NFTs are just selling Jpegs, and they will lose money in the end.

2. If you really want to buy the project of the star platform of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, be extra cautious.

3. Most of the Roadmaps are copied back, and even many are written by random people.

4. NFTs are basically only available in Ethereum L1 and Solana. It is not bad if they are posted in Polygon, L2, Flow, and Avalanche, but they are inherently more difficult to start.

5. Most white bills are worthless.

6. Picking the right person is more important than picking the right project. I buy Cryptoadz to pick Gremplin, Loot to pick Dom, IT, WT to pick Gaba.

7. It is community sentiment and Vibe that maintain the floor price in the short-term, and the expectation of sales, the expectation of issuing coins, and the expectation of airdropping sub-projects are more useful than the actual issuance of coins and airdrops.

8. The market share of OpenSea will decrease. As for other competing products (Looksrare/Magic Eden), vertical sectors (Foundation), tokenized (NFTX, Sudoswap), or horizontal development (Uniswap) , or centralized (Binance, FTX, Reddit, GameStop), hard to say, but sooner or later there will be a gap.

GameFi / Web3 / SocialFi / DAO / Infra / Others

1. GameFi I’m still learning, no comments.

2. I believe that Web3 cannot be biased against Chinese projects, otherwise there should be very few projects in your sight.

3. The core of Web3 lies in Owning your data. As long as the bottom layer does not violate this, can the front-end be compared with Web2?

4. If the small team wants to engage in Web3 Facebook / Twitter / Telegram / Reddit, they should be more cautious. First, it is too convoluted. Second, changing user habits requires several times better than the original product plus overwhelming brand promotion and hype. The opportunity for Web2 Competitor to do evil is not done by a small team.

5. SocialFi (the next Robinhood and the next eToro) also rely on Marketing, project parties, burn some money, Raccoon welcomes coins.

6. DAO is not a corporate system in the Web 3 era, but a board committee in the Web 3 era.

7. The DAO Tool uses Snapshot+Gnosis+Forum+Llamapay separately, which is much easier to use than the existing one-stop DAO Tool (such as SyndicateDAO, DAOhaus).

8. Something should DAO but not everything should DAO.

9. Wallet is the most important infrastructure, especially looking forward to a Newbie-friendly, NFT-friendly, Mobile-friendly wallet.

10. Several RPC Providers are good, but the valuation is expensive, and retail investors can’t invest, so don’t look at them.

11. Decentralized VPNs are expensive, can you make them cheaper?

12. Do bridges need so many? This track is a lottery, and everyone loses. There is no winner. The users of the bridge are too price-sentive. As soon as you increase the price, users will run immediately. There is no loyalty like Uniswap.

A round of nagging is just a talk from Degen’s experience. Maybe today’s me will defeat yesterday’s me soon. Maybe I don’t know enough about some new projects and new tracks. Chat with the founder of Tao, go and correct your cognition, continue to learn, welcome to correct me.

Posted by:CoinYuppie,Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/45-advice-for-crypto-investors-how-to-identify-projects-for-prudent-investment/
Coinyuppie is an open information publishing platform, all information provided is not related to the views and positions of coinyuppie, and does not constitute any investment and financial advice. Users are expected to carefully screen and prevent risks.

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