1. Looking back at 2021, the best strategy is to “lay flat” without tossing. How many industries, how many so-called “successful” people around me, who used to make money by luck, have all gone back this year by their ability.
2. The domestic economy will be ups and downs in 2021, and epidemics will pop up from time to time. Together with the zero-clearing policy, it will be extremely lethal to the economy.
3. The decline in real estate and the default of many real estate companies have brought huge uncertainty to the Chinese economy.
4. Hong Kong stocks fell so much that Mom couldn’t recognize them, and China and Hong Kong stocks were full of grief. The average annual decline of 40% in the two markets caused many people to suffer heavy losses.
5. Under the “common prosperity” and “anti-monopoly”, the previous dynamic industries have been hit hard: financial technology (represented by ants), training and education, live broadcasting, film and television. The problems faced by these companies are not only the outside world, but also the bottleneck of their internal rapid development: the demographic dividend and the market dividend have come to an end, and the road of barbaric development is no longer feasible.
6. In addition to domestic internal factors, the external environment is also deteriorating day by day. It can be said that since 1989, China’s international environment was at its worst, and this trend will continue (you can clearly feel it after going over the wall), mainly Sino-U.S. relations have plummeted, and the containment of China by the United States and its allies has affected China’s economic development. This trend should not change in the next 5 years. Everyone must be psychologically prepared. There will be more and more neck-stucks. Although it is not serious enough to directly cause conflicts, the days when China stepped on the shoulders of Americans and strode forward. Never come back again.
7. Blockchain digital currency is the only bright spot in the industry. From the overall market, it is the best performer among all assets. First, Defi, then NFT, GameFi, and then Metaverse. Hotspots are wave after wave, but unfortunately they have encountered domestic crackdowns. Banning digital currency business in China, everyone really has to go overseas this time.
- The major political event in China in 2022 will be the 20th National Congress in October. Prior to this, everything is focused on stability, so many policies will not change much. But after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it is not necessarily, everyone should pay special attention to it.
- China’s economy is still in a downward trend. “Demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening” will still be the main keynote in 2022. If the epidemic clearance policy is not adjusted (and will not be adjusted in the short term), the economic damage will be further deepened.
- The risk of real estate is still being released, and its wide-ranging impact has not really come out, so we must be especially careful.
- The Internet industry began to shrink, and traffic peaked. Hong Kong stocks did not see any basis for a sharp rebound. China’s concept stocks were oversold due to the political influence of China and the United States. A slight rebound is possible, but it is a small wave under the general trend.
- The major issue in the United States is the mid-term elections. The Republican Party seems to have won even more. Whether Trump announces his election for the next President of the United States has become the biggest focus of the world’s attention. The U.S. capital market has closed the door to China, and it is almost impossible to go public. SPAC is no longer possible. I have seen the U.S. investment banking industry retreat to Chinese companies.
- The Fed’s balance sheet reduction will proceed as scheduled to curb inflation in the United States and the world, which will have a long-term negative impact on high-growth stocks (tech stocks, digital currencies). Positions and strategies should be adjusted appropriately. Therefore, investment in 2022 should be more conservative and stable. Don’t invest in large fixed assets, and don’t easily borrow money to invest and increase leverage.
Digital currency industry outlook
1. Going to the sea has become the mainstream, and all those who can go abroad are going abroad, either people bring projects and money (coins) directly out, or people remotely control foreign projects and currencies in the country.
2. Asia is centered on Singapore. Singapore’s regulation is liberalized, the industry atmosphere is good, and the concentration of talents is high, all of which are suitable for blockchain digital currencies. Most of the domestic exchange project service agencies have moved to Singapore. The other center of Asia is Dubai, where the policies are good, with oil and U.S. dollars, and there are many rich Arabs, but after all, they are not in the Chinese living circle. Hong Kong is also fine, but since the drastic changes that you know in Hong Kong in the past two years, Hong Kong is no longer the first choice for currency circles.
3. The European and American centers are in Silicon Valley and New York. My experience in New York is very deep this time. Many Chinese mining machine businesses have moved to North America. Because North America’s policies are stable and friendly, power is sufficient, and the capital market is welcome and active for mining, many teams in the United States have begun to provide one-stop service for mining farms ( From site selection, compliance, licenses, electricity, services, and finally capital market financing), you can leave a message in the background if you have any needs in this area. I will introduce several services for you to choose.
4. Another feature of New York is that traditional institutions and high-net-worth clients are aggressively entering digital currency. There are many institutions and high-net-worth clients that just need: technology, services, consulting, news, custody, and asset management. These all require professionalism and trust, which is a blue ocean.
5. The digital currency NFT will continue to be popular. I have reservations about Metaverse. It is really a bubble. Everyone is scouring the sand in the waves. Web3 should pay attention to it.
happy New Year to all.
Posted by:CoinYuppie，Reprinted with attribution to:https://coinyuppie.com/2021-investment-summary-and-2022-outlook/
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